The business case is only as good as its inputs. Below is every assumption, its benchmark range, and how confident we are in it. Three inputs marked your data swing the whole model. Give us those and we lock it together in the room.
Before we argue about any output, these are the three inputs the whole case pivots on. We have used deliberately conservative placeholders. Your real figures move every line up or down together.
How many customers and leads can we prompt to join, across email, post-purchase, packaging and site.
Average value of an order tracked to a member's code or link, blended across supplements, diagnostics and treatment plans.
Share of prompted customers who join, and share of members who complete a mission in a given month.
The full parameter register. "Value used" is what feeds the Month 12 column of the business case unless noted.
| Input | Value used | Benchmark / source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contactable base | 250,000 | Numan's own CRM / order base. Placeholder for a funded, national brand. | Your data |
| Cumulative join rate | ~6% | Post-purchase + pop-up + email opt-in typically 2 to 8% blended when always-on. | Benchmarked |
| Total members @ 12m= base × join rate × reach ramp | ~15,000 | Derived. Ramps 2k (m3) to 6k (m6) to 15k (m12). | Benchmarked |
| Monthly active rate | ~27% | Engaged community platforms see 20 to 40% monthly active among members. | Benchmarked |
| Active ambassadors= members × active rate | 4,000 | Derived. 500 (m3) to 1,500 (m6) to 4,000 (m12). | Benchmarked |
| Content per active / month | 0.75 | Engaged UGC members produce 0.5 to 2 pieces / month. We use the low end. | Grounded |
| Content replacement value | £200 / asset | UGC creators charge £50 to 300; agencies package £150 to 500. Conservative mid. | Benchmarked |
| Tracked orders per active / month | ~1.4 | One to two attributable orders per active advocate per month. | Directional |
| Attributed AOV | ~£70 | Numan's real blended AOV. Health subscriptions typically well above this. | Your data |
| Commission rate | 15% | Programme design. Standard advocate commission band 10 to 20%. | Grounded |
| Rewards & product pool / month | £4k to £20k | Points, gift cards, product seeding. Ramps with membership. | Benchmarked |
| Club platform fee / month | $1,500 flat | Fixed, all-inclusive. Does not scale with volume. | Grounded |
| Extra web traffic / month | +70k @ 12m | Link shares × clicks + content click-through. Modelled, wide range. | Directional |
| Social following gained | +55k cumulative | Fraction of amplified reach. The softest line; treat as upside, not a promise. | Directional |
Every headline number is one of these formulas. Change an input and the output moves with it. Figures shown are the Month 12 result.
base × join rate × reach ramp × active rateactive × pieces each × £ per assetactive × orders each × AOV15% × affiliate rev + rewards poolaffiliate rev ÷ (community + platform)affiliate rev + content value) ÷ costNot every line deserves equal weight. Here is where we would stake our name, and where we would not:
Reality check: our modelled 5× hard ROI is below what live Club communities report. Daniel Wellington sees 600% monthly ROI, Body & Fit 700%, and Desenio has driven $11.2m in tracked revenue through 7,000 active members. We have chosen to model Numan conservatively and let the real results speak for the upside.